2024 Rider Tiers Half 1: Who’re the highest Grand Tour contenders heading into the upcoming season? Spencer Martin breaks down the place every main Grand Tour contender stands as we method the 2024 season.
– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for full entry. –
Jumbo-Visma ‘most likely’ wont will all three GT’s
With the beginning of the 2024 skilled biking season shortly approaching (though it isn’t clear the place we will watch that season for the time being), I believed it might be instructive (in addition to simply enjoyable) to revisit who the game’s elite riders are at every main self-discipline (grand excursions, one-classics & stage profitable) heading into 2024 to present us a clearer view of what to anticipate when these main occasions roll round.
To kick issues off, I’m separating the highest grand tour contenders into 5 tiers. To delineate them into tiers, I’m considering 1) their outcomes over the previous 4 seasons, with outcomes generated lately given extra emphasis, 2) their age*, and, most significantly, 3) their chance to generate outcomes (wins) within the 2024 season.
*rider age is taken from the beginning of 2024 biking season
Why This Is Useful
One main advantage of this train is the flexibility to objectively minimize by means of the noise and see who the very best riders in every self-discipline are. That is particularly necessary within the trendy panorama since there’s an odd inversion the place the much less a rider produces, the extra media protection they obtain. This inversion can create mismatched expectations amongst followers, and even groups/riders themselves, previous to grand excursions when 1/4th of the sector is being touted as potential winners and groups are devoting valuable assets to GC campaigns of riders with no actual probability of contending for podium spots.
Who will likely be on the rostrum in Good (no Paris in 2024)
The Standards
Whereas there’s a practically limitless array of rising grand tour skills, like Cian Uijtdebroeks, who could go on to incredible careers as grand tour winners, to qualify for the highest 4 tiers, a rider will need to have both received a grand tour previously 4 seasons or landed within the high 5 on the Tour de France throughout the previous two years.
- As a normal rule, these tiers are supposed to be goal scores that take a rider’s most up-to-date GC outcomes into consideration, however there are a number of situations the place riders with skinny GC outcomes, like Remco Evenepoel, are elevated and riders that will technically qualify for a tier, like Egan Bernal, are omitted on account of current outcomes failing to point out the required stage to compete with the others.
- Younger skills with a excessive ceiling who could have the flexibility to make a large step up from 2023 to 2024 however don’t have the outcomes to land inside the highest 4 will likely be relegated to the fifth tier.
- Despite the fact that these riders rightfully create a number of pleasure and get important consideration, this theoretical upside will not be accounted for in these tiers since most individuals vastly overestimate how shut they’re to really changing their expertise into a significant grand tour win.
- In fact, there’s all the time an opportunity one in every of them replicates Remco Evenepoel’s 2022 season, the place he got here in with a historical past of robust however considerably scattered, big-race outcomes and received a one-day Monument, grand tour and world street race championship title, however, because of the unprecedented nature of the season, that is extremely unlikely.
Beneath, every rider is listed of their BTP designated tier together with the age and group they are going to be racing at in 2024:
The Tiers
Tier 1
Reserved for riders who’ve confirmed a capability to win a grand tour towards the game’s finest competitors in recent times and have the flexibility to take action in 2024. That is clearly an extremely choose and elite group.
Pogačar
Tadej Pogačar – (25) – UAE
- 2023: 2nd general@TDF
- 7xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
- 2022: 2nd general@TdF
- 5xTdF stage podium (3xTdF stage win)
- 2021: 1st general@TdF
- 3xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
- 2020: 1st general@TdF
- 4xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage win)
- GC Totals: 2xTdF general win, 2xTdF runner-up
- Stage Totals: 9xGT complete stage wins, 19xGT complete stage podiums
Vingegaard
Jonas Vingegaard – (27) – Jumbo
- 2023: 1st general@TdF, 2nd general@Vuelta
- 4xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage wins)
- 2022: 1st general@TdF
- 4xTdF stage podium (2xTdF stage wins)
- 2021: 2nd general@TdF
- 2020: N/A
- N/A
- GC Totals: 2xTdF general win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up
- Stage Totals: 3xGT complete stage wins, 10xGT complete stage podiums
The highest two
Tier 2
Riders who will likely be thought-about critical potential winners of the Tour de France in 2024 whereas additionally having an excellent probability to complete on the general podium. As well as, they are going to be thought-about favorites to win the remainder of the game’s grand excursions if they’re current.
Roglič
Primož Roglič – (34) – Bora
- 2023: 1st general@Giro, third general@Vuelta
- 2xGiro stage podium (1xGiro stage win), 4xVuelta stage podium (2xVuelta stage win)
- 2022: N/A
- 2xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win), 1xTdF stage podium
- 2021: 1st general@Vuelta
- 6xVuelta stage podium (2xVuelta stage win), 2xTdF stage podium
- 2020: 2nd general@TdF, 1st general@Vuelta
- 6xVuelta stage podium (3xVuelta stage win), 4xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
- GC Totals: 2xVuelta general win, 1xGiro general win, 1xTdF runner-up, 1xVuelta podium
- Stage Totals: 10xGT complete stage wins, 27xGT complete stage podiums
Evenepoel
Remco Evenepoel – (24) – QuickStep
- 2023: N/A
- 2xGiro stage podium (2xGiro stage wins), 6xVuelta stage podium (3xVuelta stage wins)
- 2022: 1st general@Vuelta
- 3xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win)
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- N/A
- GC Totals: 1xVuelta general win
- Stage Totals: 6xGT complete stage win, 11xGT complete stage podiums
The following two
Tier 3
Riders who’re capable of win, however not be the outright favourite, on the sport’s two lesser grand excursions (Giro & Vuelta), and are additionally official contenders to compete for podium spots on the Tour de France in 2024.
Adam Yates
Adam Yates – (31) – UAE
- 2023: third general@TdF
- 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
- 2022: ninth general@TdF
- 2021: 4th general@Vuelta
- 2020: ninth general@TdF
- 1xTdF stage podium
- GC Totals: 1xTdF general podium
- Stage Totals: 1xTdF stage win, 3xGT complete stage podiums
Thomas
Geraint Thomas – (38) – Ineos
- 2023: 2nd general@Giro
- 2022: third general@TdF
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: N/A
- N/A
- GC Totals: 2xTdF podium, 1xGiro podium
- Stage Totals: 4xGT complete stage podium
Kuss
Sepp Kuss – (29) – Jumbo
- 2023: 1st general@Vuelta
- 3xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win)
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: N/A
- 1xTdF stage win, 1xVuelta stage podium
- 2020: N/A
- N/A
- GC Totals: 1xVuelta general win
- Stage Totals: 1xTdF stage win, 1xVuelta stage win, 5xGT complete stage podiums
Kuss, Yates and Thomas – Tier 3
Tier 4
These riders have an outdoor probability of profitable and a greater probability at podium finishes on the Giro and Vuelta in 2024. And if a number of issues break their method, they’ve an outdoor shot of ending on the rostrum on the Tour de France.
Geoghegan Hart
Tao Geoghegan Hart – (28) – Lidl-Trek
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: 1st general@Giro
- 3xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage wins)
- GC Totals: 1xGiro general win
- Stage Totals: 2xGiro stage wins, 4xGT complete stage podiums
Hindley
Jai Hindley – (27) – Bora
- 2023: seventh general@TdF
- 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)
- 2022: 1st general@Giro
- 3xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: 2nd general@Giro
- 3xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
- GC Totals: 1xGiro general win, 1xGiro runner-up
- Stage Totals: 3xGT complete stage wins, 7xGT complete stage podiums
Simon Yates
Simon Yates (31) – Jayco
- 2023: 4th general@TdF
- 2022: N/A
- 2xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage win)
- 2021: third general@Giro
- 2xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)
- 2020: N/A
- N/A
- GC Totals: 1xTdF general high 5, 1xGiro podium
- Stage Totals: 3xGiro stage wins, 4xGT complete stage podiums
Is it time for the younger guys?
Tier 5:
The game’s elite younger(ish) grand tour GC expertise. Utterly unproven as winners, however all have a formidable assortment of high tens and podiums to date and may have nice probabilities to complete on the rostrum, and even perhaps win, the 2024 Giro and/or Vuelta.
João Almeida – UAE- (25) – 4th@Giro 2020, sixth@Giro 2021, fifth@Vuelta 2022, third@Giro 2023
Juan Ayuso – UAE- (21) – third@Vuelta 2022, 4th@Vuelta 2023
Carlos Rodriguez – Ineos (23) – seventh@Vuelta 2022, fifth@TdF 2023
Thymen Arensman – Ineos (23) – sixth@Vuelta 2022, sixth@Giro 2023
Cian Uijtdebroeks – Bora – (21) – eighth@Vuelta 2023
Uijtdebroeks
High Riders Who Missed Out
Illustrating simply how tough it’s to remain within the high tiers of grand tour GC competition, beneath are three extraordinarily high-quality riders whose current Palmeres didn’t permit them to qualify for the tiers above, plus Egan Bernal, who, regardless of technically qualifying on account of his 2021 Giro d’Italia victory, simply merely hasn’t proven the requisite skill to compete with the brand new group of GC stars after his low season crash between the 2021 and the 2022 seasons.
- Specifically, Bernal’s struggles to stick with the lead breakaway group on comparatively delicate climbs on Stage 18 of the 2023 Vuelta had been an indicator that he may probably wrestle to get again to his former climbing stage.
Mas
Enric Mas – (28) – Movistar
- 2023: sixth@Vuelta
- 2022: 2nd@Vuelta
- 2021: 2nd@Vuelta
- 2020: fifth@Vuelta
- Podium Totals: 2xVuelta podium
Carapaz
Richard Carapaz – (30) – EF
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: 2nd@Giro
- 2021: third@TdF
- 2020: 2nd@Vuelta
- Podium Totals: 1xGiro runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up, 1xTdF podium
Landa
Mikel Landa – (34) – QuickStep
- 2023: fifth@Vuelta
- 2022: third@Giro
- 2021: N/A
- 2020: 4th@TdF
- Podium Totals: 1xGiro general podium
Bernal
Egan Bernal – (27) – Ineos
- 2023: N/A
- 2022: N/A
- 2021: 1st general@Giro
- 2020: N/A
UAE high group
Key Takeaways:
1) The highest Grand Tour GC expertise is concentrated inside a number of high groups
- Tier breakdown by group:
UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
Jumbo-Visma: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 3
Bora: 1xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
Ineos: 1xTier 3, 2xTier 5
Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 2
Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 4
Jayco-Alula: 1xTier 4 - The foremost takeaway from this record is simply how concentrated grand tour success is inside a number of groups and even only a handful of riders inside these choose groups.
- Actually, regardless of there being 22 groups that constantly compete within the top-level races (18 WorldTour groups plus 4 second-division groups), solely seven have grand tour GC contenders that even qualify for the highest 5 tiers of this train.
- Additional underlining this inequality, no group has a rider within the up-and-coming fifth tier that doesn’t even have a rider within the 4 tiers above.
- Three riders, Vingegaard, Pogačar, and Roglič, have received seven out of the twelve grand excursions (58%) because the begin of the 2020 season, which reveals simply how robust the delineation is between the highest tier and the remainder of the sector.
Subsequent up Jumbo-Visma
2) Jumbo has taken a step again, whereas Bora is on the rise heading into the 2024 season
- Jumbo and UAE are nonetheless the one two groups with Tier 1 riders, however their benefit over the remainder of the sector has considerably decreased since final yr on account of Bora taking a large step up by buying Primož Roglič’s contract from Jumbo, and truly having extra tiered riders than Jumbo (3 vs 2).
- Apparently, UAE has additionally overtaken Jumbo each by way of doubling the quantity of complete tiered riders (4 vs 2) whereas additionally matching their variety of Tier 1 riders.
- Beneath the highest two, Ineos has three drained riders, however they lack a single celebrity able to coming into a grand tour as an outright favourite in 2024.
- Apparently, the veteran Geraint Thomas has really elevated his tier from final yr by going from 4 to three, however the lack of Tao Geoghegan Hart, who regarded unimaginable earlier than crashing out of the 2023 Giro, has been a large loss for Ineos.
Thomas nonetheless has it
3) These tiers additionally converse to the problem of not solely profitable a grand tour, however sustaining that success.
- Whereas riders like Jai Hindley and Remco Evenepoel have received grand excursions in recent times, neither have, at the least to date, been capable of replicate that success.
- Additionally, pretty current grand tour winners like Richard Carapaz and Egan Bernal have fallen out of the tiers fully, one by means of not having the current palmers to qualify and the opposite on account of failing to point out the standard essential to problem for grand tour victories towards trendy skills.
Bernal: Tour winner to domestique?
4) Constant rider progress and enchancment is underrated.
- Younger riders like Juan Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez, and Cian Uijtdebroeks are extraordinarily extremely touted for the time being, however you will need to level out that Enric Mas is producing practically the identical outcomes however with out the fanfare and pleasure on account of being just some years older.
- It’d sound absurd contemplating these riders’ younger ages, however, as quickly as a rider begins producing GC outcomes, it is crucial for them to repeatedly enhance to develop into a high star and keep away from falling into the Mas/Landa zone of having the ability to end within the high 5 constantly, however fail to noticeably problem for general victory.
Landa and Mas – A GT win too far
5) The highest GC contenders who additionally dominate the stage podium totals will likely be extremely tough to beat
- The lopsided stage podium totals and, consequently, the huge time bonus benefit that comes with it, present us that, at the least within the close to future, the established superstars class will likely be extraordinarily tough to unseat in the event that they take the beginning line match and wholesome since riders like Thomas and Hindley should be a stage above, both in poaching time by means of savvy techniques throughout transition phases or within the time trials, in the event that they need to beat the extra well-rounded riders within the high tier.
- Vingegaard’s being head-and-shoulders above the remaining on lengthy climbs and time trials have rendered it a moot level to date, however his stage win/podium totals lagging behind Pogačar and Roglič indicators a possible weak spot that may very well be exploited on the 2024 Tour.
- The one GC contender that seems able to difficult Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Roglič for stage podiums and time bonuses is Evenepoel, who has shortly developed a capability to dash and contest quick uphill finishes.
Can anybody beat the highest two?
– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Enroll right here for full entry. –
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